Time: December 17, 2007
Location: Beijing, Rome, near the Orchid Garden teahouse Xuan
Participants: Bo (Keso), wheat, Xie Wen
one, Basic synchronization , more seriously, we can also say a word together; so today we talk together; pick their favorite, we talk about matters of concern
Keso: 对.
wheat: Yes, that would be more than we talk about social networking and web2.0. In recent years, Xie said before the total in this three PPT, I keso 2 may be seen, there is one I recently read, it seems that the total 05 Xie Xie Wen do
year: Yes, and Fang Xingdong discussions, when he said the stresses, in 2005, when the summer.
wheat field: time off really fast, and now look back at the past two years web2.0 site, many sites still did not do it.
Xie Wen: What in fact admit defeat relationships do, acknowledge to continue fighting after the failure of the first to prove that you love the Internet, comparing the second to prove that you can learn. you want to see Li, 3 times a year he would like to sell, sell, change the business model 3; you see Ma , 4.5 million had to buy his Lianzhong mm everyone is low, but people hold on, and slowly do it up
Catcher: ah. Yes. then we started. I think the recent start keso the blog began to talk? He spoke in 2007 key issues of China and the United States search for the in the search engine most asked 10 questions; I made a comparison, more fun is that the majority of Chinese users search and the stocks and funds on
Xie Wen: That's because this year's hot stock market
Keso: Yes. U.S. users of the different stages of development
Xie Wen: ah. In a stable society, he should be normally distributed search problem is life problems often encountered in the search engine will reflect the true; Chinese society is a wave after wave, where waves up, there is the hot wave which
wheat: But I feel rather strange about this difference; because of the low-end users a lot of Internet users in China, so the search funds and the stock should not be such a big proportion of , where the problem might be and publish statistics related to the way
Xie Wen: This and related to the development of Chinese Internet users. Chinese Internet users have two sets, a group of 96 years to 99 years, mainly two kinds of people, doing IT or Telecom, was also a conditional access; Then there were the students, but students at cnet, and the public network is not true. so characteristic of early users of this provision is mostly the rich, when we were in the Lianzhong, Some lavish monthly access fees to users of more than 2000; the second call is 2000, 2001, the popularization of computers, and especially adsl became commonplace, the Internet user's age on the down. China is ; and So I think the statistics are not allowed to
Xie Wen: is normalized, you go to CNNIC's annual survey, the average age of Internet users each year is six months old, one-year-old to go up; the current students say the Internet is 100% , and also the increasing popularity of online high school; now is to fill those odd turn forty and more new users, such as you see now stocks; 40% of the investors in the Internet the order. The high number ah. when I dream in to this number. was 5%, 10% of the no.
Keso: Yes ah, Lenovo's purchase of the year when the pass to win, that is, look at this.
Catcher: ah. But this statistics, I still think he and problems, it is to the stock down about it, you see, this is the fire of the Founder mm Wheat Note) he and I Bijiao Shu. He is a 2004 started to do. In fact, to do the 2 things: First, is the fact that it would have been playing the stock market, and he in this line of business, to know how to do this do; second is the operation, he emphasized the interaction, emphasizing the relationship between the stock exchange and brokerage mm but now you see, and the prices in the past, it is now very powerful out of. So when I was on and the information transformation, because here, too: If the stock market fire, you fire; the stock market bear, and you is not good, how do?!
Keso: Yes, and I think the site of such stock market, and the stock market, posted too tight; you see the beginning of is one thing. So you say business is especially afraid of this, the present bull market we are the fire, and then a bear market, but also all go; then you tell me what time the next bull market? I can not predict the ability of your site I can only predict the market mm while the market is unpredictable. Such sites are too dependent on a single product and a single market.
wheat: But this is indeed a national stock
Keso: So you see Baidu search keywords ten, that there is a lot of equity funds related
Xie Wen: This is the keso you just said, Chinese society is still in development stage.
II, mm Zainian year is China's Internet, China is certainly to do a bunch of facebook, and then be done on China's myspace. the situation is almost ah.
Xie Wen: You do not say, ah, youtube is also the beginning of the fire.
Keso: Yes. It was early this year. However, this stimulation too facebook, youtube is more than a billion dollars, while facebook is 15 billion. Youtube that stimulus, then look at is getting bigger; but compared to the stimulation and facebook, or very poor.
Xie Wen: Yes, ah, 150 billion dollars, but google and the two giants Microsoft, jealousy to scramble
Keso: So some people say, we are not too much, as long as facebook one-tenth enough. is enough ah. (laughs) But seriously, I think both this and the current noise as do myspace, but really it is done, the value is not too complicated to make. This situation may be the same as in facebook.
Xie Wen: You see it in 2007, wheat
Catcher: I think one is the video site, which is actually still continue youtube; video sites in the country this year is quite intense, that a few were getting the second round; and from traffic point of view, is their hottest domestic Internet; second then I think it is Ali, and Ali listing, known as market value is the sum of Tencent and Baidu (laughs)
Keso : Ali listed the effects that may emerge next year
Catcher: ah. The third is that facebook has. Xie total it?
Xie Wen: I talk about trying to simplify the summary of my 2007: I the Internet is divided into three categories: to do a new industry, new models, new sources of income: what is expansion of the market; the third type of , regardless of the financing opportunity or misappropriating the opportunity to come in and run a circle; fast track; he himself did not love the Internet. This is not a third scope of our discussion. In fact, to talk about is Internet databases are making money, register a domain name make money. So then,
in China, in 2007 more typical of . but those things are all normal business operations, you draw on to do what the Internet? to For the truly The United States is China has also sold, contracted. Of course you can argue that Baidu, Tencent shares are high, but that is their core competence is innovation and the accumulation of previous years. And we In no innovation, not a decent thing to get, not to mention 15 billion U.S. dollars, 1.5 billion do not even; not light no, web2.0 this cast a lot of money, and I heard the video this count, the domestic web2. 0 this cumulative investment of one hundred million U.S. dollars have been 15-20.
therefore, simply, do e-commerce, which is Army will not have very good performance; so now I say the words recalled in 2007, and 2006, 2005 are similar, to pay a quiz. now I'm still continues to this view, China's Internet in large-scale innovation in the Su Yan serious a , ebay no technological innovation, the new concept was put forward, in fact, his original concept of the closest 2.0; 70% of his customers are not trading in it, but the chat communication; why he does not naturally evolve a facebook?
Keso: Yes, it is saying. I read the story of their early start, in fact, that gang of people who start a business, it wants to be a community; this community has the function of the exchange, but this is a community
Xie Wen: But he later changed into a big company; ceo is over from traditional industries; she emphasized the Last ebya from the from the and Amazon now ... so you almost had the final analysis, My personal point of view, if it is I very much agree. not quite the case that in 2007, ah, but the Internet has at least two sets of this, is the wave of the Internet itself as an industry to do the; what to say in addition to the total vertical wave, ah, ah e-commerce In fact, this and previous years mode, and did not really play out the advantages of the Internet.
Xie Wen: Ctrip are in line with the road to go. Ctrip we said last year, I am more optimistic about him. Ctrip is to a flower, and the reservation, air tickets, travel all integrate, bringing the whole industry chain is improved. Therefore, the may several tens of millions of e-commerce site to get the investment, you said he and the traditional business models What is the difference? No.
Xie Wen: This is mainly the characteristics of China's real economy, infrastructure is poor, unlike the United States. American tradition industries are electronic, and even the electronic trash collection; but China's traditional industries also particularly the original, so China's real economy and the Internet combined, No problem.
but overall, this is a pyramid: the bottom is the This may be 70%; another 20% or 25% of is, In fact, quite different, and increasingly from the pull
three, role. Vc which way to vote, and some entrepreneurs go out into which direction to do; such as
Xie Wen: vc in the traditional business can get very good returns
Keso: Yes ah, ten times or even several times
Xie Wen: So this is the special situation in China now.
Keso: ah, so vc more willing to vote for the traditional money, whether you are a traditional food, ah, mm, or a shoe shoe Belle typical, listed a; have the opportunity to put into the shoe, if you are is a national chain or what; vc opportunities in traditional industries here, so those who appear reluctant to risk investment may be large. so vc is oriented in this respect nature.
wheat: I am more recognition, but This situation is half past one will not change. In addition there is a foreign financing, is a large company can buy; but we are not here so good to see you for a great website, too, I own a.
Xie Article: acquisition, capital operation is the most important work; than financing also come to frequent. You see Microsoft, yahoo, google this company, the acquisition of a dozen or even dozens of times a year. their vision out there . We now study the operation of capital in Silicon Valley, learn the one option, a school had a c o, but we did not learn all of the essence. In fact, these include the financing of the acquisition of, ah, is a full range of management; but the Chinese do, basically , or only half the school, plus some things are so-called Chinese characteristics, follow out, which became an obstacle, the power of the hysteresis of innovation. In fact, you ask vc, vc feel very wronged, they do not consider themselves baton. The concept of capital operation; including their management capacity; how well the digestion after the acquisition. I own one, the cost is so low, hand, a high success rate
Xie Wen: But also acquired over foxmail
Tencent wheat: I think he received is very strange, he had decided to close because the client may also be the reason, but in fact this effect did not come out.
Keso: That said, which made him even more reluctant to purchase .
Four, the whole of such a scale, regardless of the size of income, investment, market influence. you say that the market size, the game this year, said company, you put the game plus an additional value, nearly 150 million. advertising that is not the same, Everyone says that ad, put a 100 billion, of course, you do not want to get rid of all listed companies, the price that I estimate is less clear. and then take into account the value-added services and others, in fact, strictly speaking, the game is a value-added services However, this child too. together almost 300 billion yuan, direct, and we still is not how much wireless, sp how much money, how much access to money, not that, and now the Internet companies combined, the total income of 300 billion . What is the concept, so to speak the film industry, the number of stars, out of a large child you have to say die. 3.0 billion a year, 30 million at the box office, plus any income point dvd, anyway, also more than 30 million Tencent's revenue is almost a fact, one-tenth of the Internet industry, Internet industry is not small. And the pace of development is not low, now if there is a sp of the recession, the industry still has tens of per cent growth in profit rate is relatively high. It should be said in the emerging high-tech industry, the Internet industry is still relatively high growth ... I heard that wind and solar energy is also quite profitable, but these things do, indeed are not high tech are the manufacturing piece of children. Another big brand, like Ali, a giant ah, Jinshan ah, this year's upstart, Baidu, Tencent, Sina, Sohu, Netease, there are ten well-known brand around the Internet. now engaged in the wages of technical group of people, have door charges go up, wages are up, and digested trained graduates each year, graduates of the computer in this direction do not have to worry about. Not only is the Internet industry, the country's various sectors of the computer demand, the Internet industry has played a catalytic role in promoting. Besides the broad social progress, open society, let out the number of not be recognized, CCTV did not release. I think if the end of the year, Southern Weekend, I think the new magazine has been assessment, the annual figures promise more than three, and now Southern Weekend Review, is said to also vote for the most promise more than three. The funny, a virtual dramatic characters, as if the Person of the Year Review, if so, then I think that the Internet is called public opinion Ye Hao, or the demands of the main channel of public opinion is a sign.
Catcher: I thank along General just said. If a more positive, I think that social networking, facebook for this child this year is a relatively clear proof. In fact, if China, a school is more prominent, in addition to actually have a 51 what it means. In fact, if I think they are 51 most recent statistics have exceeded 91 million registered users of the
Xie Wen: Registered User?
Catcher: ah
Xie Wen: up numbers you can say about a quarter of the One is about active users.
Catcher: I personally think that also can not get that high.
Xie Wen: No formal active users is generally within one month of active users
wheat: But I think 51 There are schools, or to prove that social networks together Di. Xie total PPT, keso I also read, I think more interesting is one of the proposed large.
Xie Wen: I was willing to discuss 2.0. Conceptually, the concept of 2.0 is a maximum. Web2.0 is facing a full Internet revolution. The revolution in history to put up a name called 2.0. You do not want to call it also, anyway, this is a big center. The social network is only part of the big centers, because of the relatively popular facebook social network highlights the sns, just like last year's myspace, the year before flickr, then the same blog. It is a form of revolution, generalized, then I have to say 2.0. of course you are willing to in-depth discussion about sns course I can discuss this one. This is the first I have to say today a theme, that is if I last year, almost two years ago, wrote a ppt, wheat was also speech. I use the example myspace, entitled 2.0 Community Well. Now we do not controversy. But small talk together, including the circle of my wife had said. Although we think this is a new model was or how. but 95% of the insiders, outsiders 99% of people who just now represented web2 facebook .0, as and online media, online games, e-commerce side by side look the same. But 2.0 is not just so narrow, it will have a hundred rows million industry to a new structure to accommodate the inside
Keso: I have to say about . I generally agree with Xie always said this. I think web2.0 is a fundamental concept of the update, this update it does not mean that a concept of a specific technology. A lot of people put the same into a specific web2.0 technology. I think web2.0 can not be said on a particular technology. but the kind of organization before the Internet, there has been a major change. This is the greatest value brought about web2.0, and then the one I sns not quite believe that it represents the outcome of a certain kind of 2.0 or a particular home. I think the web2.0 has just started. In fact, this is still developing a lot of things inside
Xie Wen: In fact, generally recognized to be a take some time before the industry standard industry standard.
Keso: Yes. For example, Wikipedia, it is not a community, not sns, but it is now a very successful on the Internet a valuable thing. I think this is the web2. 0 to bring it. There are a lot of things, I think at least the company's investment in this area is not enough. means that it may spread the influence of the company. For example p2p technology, I think that p2p technology is also a very important web2.0 technology in a very effective supplement in the future is not necessarily a lot of people have to proceed directly to a platform. can live p2p adhesion in the background of a large platform, a virtual platform for any platform, not a real . This is not seen. it is still relatively early as possible.
Xie Wen: still relatively early. You say that substantial, deep, fundamental technology, the signs are still (not completely out) in order to organic integrated into a large platform for some time before,
Keso: web2.0 its great potential for development. we see is only just the head showing the point.
Xie Wen: wheat it?
Five, architecture, it is not a vertical application, but the structure of a renovation, so to come to understand. In this new structure there will be some applications out, such as flickr, this picture of the application, for example, some applications sns These applications are long out in the framework above. Why is facebook so I fire them? I think that if this level from the structure, many sites have done a lot of points done, but it did not product oriented, and facebook is the first made in this framework the application of a very precise, clear products, can be used. Therefore, I particularly agree with the total Xie said, a lot of people talking about web2. 0 say what I want to be a community, in fact, it is not web2.0, it was just a these foreign sites, are the recent three, five-year development, from less than a billion dollars in terms of income, others say web2.0 business model where, I do not understand, this is not always rush to one billion U.S. dollars , always earned it. this one, facebook seems to me. at least a little bit more close to 2.0 revolution, more complete. you can say from the blog, photo, flickr is a personalized expression as an innovation. But first up, then myspace is not up to can not write blog, registration was fully real. And then, you live on the swing. to facebook then I think the real key will not rigidly adhere to the individual, the individual has a known real , and you to express better. and then it makes these people real relationship. especially the line between reality and putting it online. with a framework for the performance of this relationship was very simple and easy to learn. and easy to spread. you say alex on similar sites, see the user curve, compared to the growth rate for the facebook extremely scary. I still have not see the next inflection point.
But then again, you said facebook to put 2.0 encompasses all? no . at least from my point of view. It did not do the whole social search, social engine, I said no. so I probably ppt in 2010, says there will be a preliminary look, I think it should be after 3 years out. Now if we do not move in this direction, we should not become a colony of Microsoft Internet bar, only a small market, called the residual market or niche market, fine market. If we are to that time. I think it is too late but the thing is impossible to be exchanged. unless the Revolution, the next time.
Catcher: Dr I have always looked at the three ppt, ppt middle of the second would say that I have attended. I feel I do not know the right sum, I feel grateful to still have a general idea is that the web2.0 is actually an operating system, I think .......< br> Xie Wen: the words of the language bit operating system not easy to understand, in fact, it is a platform, not a single function or a function of the corresponding rigid technology, it should be linked to an organic, all high above the whim of playing, you can do a lot of Shier platform. you say windows is a platform, ie a platform, you can even say that google is a platform that should be it is a comprehensive application.
Catcher: If each individual computers throughout the network operator of a network of work interface, then this structure is an operating system. facebook now have this shape, the relationship has basically been put to this part, the other may be put back social search, social part of business to go into. keso how do you see, will not there will be similar to such a great unified operating system platform, is to have monopoly power of such a platform
Keso: development of the Internet in the whole process there will be such a company, but I think the Internet is certainly distributed the final . would not say that today you do not open this company, I have no place to go. This is very dangerous. I think the future will certainly be some people, the very rich to do this thing.
wheat: so I keso with this view is more consistent. I think the idea put forward in this framework is no problem, but I do not think that this framework will have a monopoly. Tencent is now paved assume such a platform. paved the platform users certainly a lot. but not the platform, a platform with the other users will still exist. So I think this platform and the times we had the kind of stand-alone operating system platforms is different.
Xie Wen: I mean you both understand that, but I think this also is not right. You did not really refute me. we did not confrontation. I mean, what kind of mean. I mean. A revolution is coming. the beginning sporadic breakthroughs, and convention, is everyone has the effect of consensus, it will settle down in a lot of things in common. When these things settle down, will be reflected in the architecture and standardization. you do the time, is in the go out on the basis of the new. but you can not deny that. This control of a platform, the developer, he is the biggest beneficiary of profits. before the arrival of the next revolution, he is to guide the direction of the industry, structure and characteristics The.
Catcher: So I accepted this framework will become a mainstream framework, but I think this architecture will be distributed to existing
Xie Wen: You say in what form he realized that does not matter, it is distributed or centralized does not matter, I think this is not important, distributed, client-side, the machine is not important. importantly, it represents the relationship between the upstream and downstream
Catcher: keso the point of view it
Keso: My point is yes there is such a company, where control of the upstream industry chain, industry standards. For example, if facebook continue to be developed it is now expected if not out too much bias, I think it can basically become a standard setter. I think in this field, you have to play, you're going to it (facebook) standards, I think it actually is such a case, may be google's open It is not the same as the concept of social, it's idea is that everyone can use this platform, and you do not need to contribute to this platform, this is essentially an open facebook ...
